What’s Going to Happen Next?

The San Francisco Home Market: Bounce Back or Double Dip?

 

 

Yesterday, an extended piece on The Today Show rated San Francisco as the #1 housing market ripe for recovery. To see the video, go to http://today.msnbc.msn.com/, scroll down the page to the “Tech & Money” section, then click on the video “5 Housing Markets Ripe for Recovery.”

 

The following criteria for evaluating areas that are stabilizing and poised for recovery:

 

-affordability

-low rate of foreclosures

-appreciation (per National Assocation of Realtors)

-strong job market and low unemployment

San Francisco was the # 1 pick, in front of Pittsburgh, Phoenix, Memphis, and Charleston WV.

I hope the Today Show’s expert Barbara Corcoran is right!

Unfortunately, she may not be.  We live in a constant storm of analysis and opinion as to what is happening and will happen in real estate. Due to national statistics in December (and other economic indicators), some have predicted a nasty “double dip” in the home market subsequent to the recovery which began last spring. But the market goes into hibernation in December: there are far fewer transactions, mostly by first-time buyers purchasing at lower price points, while families and upper-end buyers generally withdraw for the holidays. When the data is reduced and skewed, it’s less reliable. January isn’t much better because it takes a while for the market to wake up.

 

Data is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS, such as many new-development condo sales, are not reflected in these statistics. Median price is that price at which half the sales are above and half are below.

 

 

 

Therefore, the market data for February, as seen in the charts below, is of particular interest. While it’s unwise to make too much of one month’s data (a failing of many pundits), it is surprising how sharply February’s statistics indicate a strengthening market. That is not to say a double-dip isn’t possible — the state, national and world economies are still fragile — just that we are not yet seeing indications of one here in San Francisco. Those who have spent the last year waiting eagerly for further price declines have so far waited in vain. (For the record: according to the Case-Shiller index, home values in the 5-county SF Metro Area have increased 4 – 5% in 2009, but the city accounts for only a small percentage of those sales.) It will be interesting to see if the trends seen below continue, as spring gets under way — and what implications that might hold regarding price movements.

click for larger image	Home Listings Accepting Offers Considering February is a short month (with 2 national holidays), market demand was comparable to the highest levels we’ve seen in the past 18 months. February’s number was 50% higher than January, 80% higher than one year ago (during the market’s dark days), and 12% above February 2008.
click for larger image	Median List Price of Homes Accepting Offers The most recent market data available is of listings accepting offers. (Sales prices are 30-60 days behind the market, as they reflect when the offer was accepted.) And the median list price of homes accepting offers is generally within a few percentage points of the final sales price. Assuming the steep December/ January drop was a seasonal anomaly, this chart shows little indication of either significantly increasing or decreasing prices. Indeed, the definitive trend is how stable the overall SF median price for homes under contract has been since spring 2009: $700,000 plus or minus about 3%.
click for larger image	Market Activity by Property Type House and condo sales dominate the SF market, with TICs and 2-4 unit buildings far behind. The low number of closed sales in February reflects the reduced offer activity of the holiday season, and February’s accepted offers will close mostly in March and April. The average time it took for sold houses to accept an offer (59 days) was lower than that for condos (75 days), TICs (109 days) and 2-4 unit buildings (110 days), which reflects the heat of each market segment.
click for larger image	New Listings Coming on Market New inventory has been increasing since early January, but as can be seen in the other charts, it is not keeping up with buyer demand. We may see a greater surge of new listings with the beginning of spring – certainly the hope of many buyers. This is a week by week chart of the past 6 months.
click for larger image	Homes for Sale (w/o Accepted Offers) Despite the increase in new listings, the number of active homes for sale — house, condo, TIC — over the last 3 months has been lower than at any time in the past 2 years. This reflects the anecdotal word from the field: strong buyer demand; lots of buyers touring open houses; very limited supply of appealing, well-priced homes to buy; often leading to multiple offers on those that do appear on market.
click for larger image	Percentage of Listings with Accepted Offers At over 22%, February had the highest percentage of San Francisco home listings with accepted offers of any month over the past 2 years, indicating a market heating up. When looking at homes between $500,000 and $700,000 — the price range with most sales in SF — the percentage increases to over 24%, the highest percentage for that price range in the past 2 years.
click for larger image	Average Days-on-Market for Homes Accepting Offers The lower the days-on-market, the faster listings are accepting offers. February saw a big plunge in average days on market (to 47 days) for homes accepting offers. In fact, the change was so dramatic, it may be anomalous — or it may simply reflect pent-up demand, as buyers returning from the holidays jump upon an insufficient supply of inventory. It is the lowest average days-on-market number in the past 2 years.
click for larger image	Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) MSI is defined as that number of months required to sell the existing inventory of available homes at the current rate of sale: the lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to supply. At an MSI of 3.1 months, February had the lowest MSI figure for SF homes of the past 2 years. The MSI for SF homes between $500,000 and $700,000 is an even lower 2.7 months. Usually MSI figures this low would be considered a clear “Sellers’ market,” but with difficult financing conditions and uncertainties regarding the economy, the balance of power between qualified buyer and motivated seller is currently more complicated.
click for larger image	Inventory Absorption: SF Home Market The longer gray lines delineate “residual inventory”, i.e. that number of listings actively for sale on the last day of the month which were listed prior to the first day of the month: simply put, listings which have not accepted offers within 1 month of going on market. January and February saw the lowest amount of residual inventory in the last 2 years. Also the ratio of properties which have accepted offers to residual inventory is at the highest level in 2 years. Two more statistics indicating a strengthening market.
click for larger image	Sold Listings vs. Expired Listings The green bars indicate sold listings and the purple bars the expired/ withdrawn listings in any given month. (Again, the low number of sales in January and February reflect the low number of accepted offers during the holidays.) Even with the relatively strong demand in SF since last spring, for every 3 homes that sold, another 2 listings expired without selling. The current market is unlike our (very hot, perhaps irrational) market of 2 – 3 years ago, when it seemed that virtually everything sold quickly. Most Buyers now ignore listings they consider overpriced, and homes not priced within 5% – 8% of perceived fair market value usually don’t even receive offers.
click for larger image	Luxury Homes Accepting Offers This 2-year chart delineates the number of San Francisco homes priced $1,500,000 and above which accepted offers in any given month. Luxury home sales rebounded in February 2010 from the doldrums of the holiday season, back up to the highest levels seen in the past year — but still substantially below the activity seen before the market meltdown in September 2008.
click for larger image	Luxury Homes: % of Listings with Accepted Offers At 19%, February saw the highest percentage of high-end listings ($1.5m and above) with accepted offers since July 2008, an obvious indication of increasing demand amid relatively low supply. A year ago, the percentage was a very low 7% (following the crash in the luxury home market after September 2008), and 2 years ago, during the hot luxury market, the percentage reached a high 28%.
click for larger image	Mortgage Rates As March began, the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate loans once again fell below 5%, which is very low. Many analysts believe rates will increase after the Fed ends its bond buying program at the end of March, and though opinions vary, the consensus forecasts an approximate 1% increase by the end of 2010. 6% is still a low rate historically, but the increase would add significantly to the carrying cost of home ownership.

Update on “Decline from the Peak”

We have a lot to be thankful for in San Francisco. We have largely survived this real estate downturn without the enormous declines we are seeing on the news. However, they have been significant. Anyone in the market today on the seller side certainly can tell you that.

I thought it was a good time to check in and update the article from earlier this year “How Much Have San Francisco Home Values Declined Since their Peak?” Thankfully, many neighborhoods have not had a change since April, when values were even lower than in February, and some have even climbed a percent or two.

Below is an analysis of San Francisco neighborhoods comparing Average Dollar per Square Foot ($/sqft) at what is estimated to be peak value, to the average for sales occurring 10/15/08 – 4/1/09 (the market period right after the 9/15/08 financial markets meltdown), and then to the average for more recent sales occurring 5/1/09 – 10/30/09 (as home sales volume – and financial markets – surged again).

Different areas reached peak values at different times – in 2006, 2007 or 2008 – and the asterisked notes denote the estimated peak value period that pertains. The price ranges of the sales included were chosen to be in a standard range of value for the area and property type specified – thus attempting to eliminate both the ultra high end and the ultra low end, which often distort averages.

Dollar per square foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, or exterior spaces. These figures are usually derived from appraisals, tax records or condo maps, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods, and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm. They may also be distorted by confidential sales, which are not uncommon at the upper end of the market. (For confidential sales, the list price, and not the sales price, is used for the calculation.)

Key to Estimated Peak-Value Period for the Chart Below:
*             Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/06 – 6/30/06
**           Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/07 – 6/30/07
***        Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/08 – 6/30/08

Changes in Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
for Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods & Property Types

Neighborhood or District	Property Type Price Range	Avg $/sq.ft. at Peak Value	10/15/08 – 4/01/09	5/1/09 – 10/30/09	Change from 4/1/09	Total Change from Est. Peak Value
Bayview*	House $300k – 800k	$507/sq.ft.	$294/sq.ft.	$280/sq.ft.	- 5%	- 45%
Ingleside/ Hghts / Oceanview*	House $400k – 800k	$580	$449	$444	- 1%	- 23%
Excelsior/Portola*	House $400k – 800k	$600	$457	$450	- 1.5%	- 25%
Central/Outer Richmond **	House $700k – 1.4m	$569	—	$488	—	- 14%
Inner Mission**	Condo $500k – $800k	$621	—	$496	—	- 20%
Central/ Outer   Sunset**	House $500k –  900k	$626	$533	$501	- 6%	- 20%
Miraloma/ Sunnyside**	House $500k – 1m	$677	$598	$550	- 8%	- 19%
Hayes Valley/ Alamo/ NOPA***	Condo $500k – 900k	$684	$602	$559	- 7%	- 18%
SOMA**	Condo $500k – 900k	$689	$553	$562	+ 2%	- 18%
Neighborhood or District	Property Type Price Range	Avg $/sq.ft. at Peak Value	10/15/08 – 4/01/09	5/1/09 – 10/30/09	Change from 4/1/09	Total Change from Est. Peak Value
Bernal Hghts***	House $500k – 1m	$651/sq.ft.	$556/sq.ft.	$567/sq.ft.	+ 2%	- 13%
St Francis Wd/W. Portal/Forest H **	House $800k – 2.5m	$687	—	$585	—	- 15%
Noe & Eureka Valleys***	Condo $500k – 1m	$751	$675	$613	- 9%	- 18%
South Beach***	Condo $500k – 1m	$785	$681	$640	- 6%	- 18%
Potrero Hill**	House $700k – 1.4m	$753	—	$648	—	- 14%
Russian/Nob/ Telegraph Hills***	Condo $600k – 1.2m	$798	—	$692	—	- 13%
Noe & Eureka Valleys***	House $800k – 1.5m	$891	$755	$707	- 6%	- 21%
Pacific Hghts/  Marina (Dist 7)***	Condo $600k – 1.2m	$809	$763	$733	- 4%	- 9%
Most Expensive North SF Areas***	House $1.5m – $4m	$975	—	$797	—	- 18%

Averages are generalities and cannot account for the varieties in location, condition and amenities found in SF homes. Averages may be affected by unusual events or short-term trends, and do not necessarily reflect values for specific properties.  Average dollar per square foot values fluctuate even in a stable price market as they are impacted by individual sales, and changes of less than 3-4% should probably be ignored. All data from sources deemed reliable, but not guaranteed and may contain errors and omissions. Sales not reported to MLS – such as many new condo-development sales – are not included in this analysis.

Have We Found the Floor?

Yesterday, the Case-Shiller Index — considered the most objective index of US home prices — reported, as pertaining to April to May prices: “10-city and 20-city composites reported positive returns for the first time since the summer of 2006…the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing.”

For the SF Metro Area (i.e. greater Bay Area, NOT just SF), C-S reported gains of .6% March to April, and 1.4% April to May. Year over year, C-S reported an overall metro area decline of 26.1%. Read the full article here.

From my own experience, I can happily say that things are picking up. Home of the Week 1617 Fulton went into escrow after just 5 days or so on the market with a pre-emptive offer. My listing at 640 Judah got three offers after just a short time on the market, and buyers who I am working with now are regularly competing in a field of 3 or more offers. To be clear, these deals are all well under the $1MM mark, and activity is definitely being driven by the availability of financing available at very low rates. Homes that are not eligible for these low rates – most TICs and homes requiring a loan over $729k are not moving nearly as briskly (if at all -oh so gorgeous Home of the Week 116 Sugarloaf has been on the market over a year and has been reduced from $7.5MM to a mere $4.5MM).

The below charts show that there has been a substantial increase in sales volume, and about a 20% decrease in homes selling under asking price.  Volume for the two weeks ended July 15 was 172% of what it was for the period ended March 18 of this year.  It is too soon to tell if the decrease in homes selling under asking price (and the commensurate increase in those selling over) means that prices are climbing.  However, my recent market experiences tell me that there has been a shift toward underpricing homes to attract attention (and multiple offers) in the “affordable” sectors of the market.

Well, it’s changes like these that keep things exciting and I am really happy to be participating in these busy times due to the support I get from all of you. Thanks, as always for your referrals and for letting me be your go-to person for your real estate needs.

(All data is from San Francisco MLS)

Market Update – Signs of Life (at last)!

In recent weeks, the number of listings accepting offers has increased substantially, while the number of price reductions and expired and withdrawn listings – though still high by historical standards – has decreased significantly. Months-supply-of-inventory (MSI), an indicator of seller supply and buyer demand, has also declined. (The higher the MSI, the greater the buyer advantage.) Whether this will prove to be the beginning of a durable resurgence for SF real estate or simply a springtime bounce, it is too soon to tell.

The area where most house sales are now occurring is Realtor District 10 (Bayview-Portola-Excelsior). Then comes District 2 (Sunset-Parkside), District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight) and Bernal Heights. District 10, with the greatest number of foreclosure sales, has been hardest hit by price declines, and has roughly as many sales as Districts 2 and 5 combined – so it has had a massive impact on overall median price in SF. (Which is one reason why the overall city median home price is virtually worthless as an indicator of changes in market values.)

Most condo sales are occurring in South Beach-SOMA, then District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight), and then District 7 (Pacific Heights-Cow Hollow-Marina). These numbers don’t include new development sales unreported to MLS – which would greatly increase the South Beach-SOMA sales numbers. The new developments are doing everything they can to move inventory right now.

Foreclosure Sales Update

Since mid-October 2008, 17% of house sales and 6% of condo sales in San Francisco have been REO (bank-owned) homes. The median sales price of an REO house during this period has been relatively stable at about $500,000; the median sales price for an REO condo has been $432,000. 78% of REO house sales have occurred in the less affluent south/southeast part of the city, stretching from Bayview to Oceanview. 85% of REO condo sales have been in the neighborhoods stretching south from SOMA along the east side of the city down to Bayview and across to Oceanview. The greater part of the city – northern, central and western neighborhoods – continues to be relatively unaffected by foreclosure sales.

Pricing, Buying, Selling & Negotiating San Francisco Real Estate

The below is a detailed analysis of current market conditions in San Francisco.  The quick and dirty jist of things is:  lots of properties are sitting on the market at much higher prices than they will eventually sell for.  If you are a buyer, and you see something you like – go for it!  If you are a seller, beware the temptation to “leave room to negotiate.”  It will cost you in time and ultimately in sale price.  Finally, if you are thinking of buying or selling in this complex market, be sure to ask for the help you need.  Please always remember, I am here with a great team of financial, staging and marketing professionals to help you and yours get it done with the best possible outcome.

At current market trends, over the next month:*

• 1400 active house & condo listings will be joined by 600 new listings.
• 1 in 7 or 8 of those listings will accept an offer to purchase.
• 1 in 8 will expire or be withdrawn from the market (didn’t sell).
• 1 in 4 will reduce its asking price.
• 75 active bank-owned (REO) homes will be joined by 45 new REO listings: 1 in 3 will accept offers.
• Of the listings that do accept offers, 1 in 3 or 4 will come back on market because the purchase fell through — typically due to financing difficulties, property condition issues or buyer remorse.

*All numbers are approximate; neither TIC sales nor non-MLS new-development sales are included.

List Price, Offer Price, Sales Price

• Of the house and condo listings that SOLD in the first 2.5 months of 2009:*
• 1 in 4 accepted offers within about 15 days of going on market, i.e. almost immediately. Of these, the houses averaged a sales price of about 1% over asking price, while condos averaged about 4% below asking.
• The supply and demand equation is currently weaker for condos than for houses; the equation for TICs and multi-unit buildings is much weaker still — financing is now very difficult for these properties.
• Those accepting offers after 45 to 75 days on market sold at an average of 3% to 4% below last asking price and 7% to 10% below original list price.
• Those accepting offers after 105 days on market sold, on average, 4% to 5% below last asking price and 14% to 18% below original price.
• No matter how long a home was for sale, it still sold, on average, within 3% to 5% of the last price, even as — with price reductions — the discount off the original price grew much larger as time passed.

* For SF house and condo sales reported to MLS by 3/17/09. City districts with high foreclosure rates, as well as confidential sales and ultra high-end sales were excluded to avoid distorting general market statistics.

What it Means
The vast majority of buyers and buyers’ agents will NOT make an offer until they perceive the property’s asking price to be within 5% of “market value” (i.e. what they’re willing to pay).

1) They don’t want to waste time and emotional energy on a listing they consider significantly overpriced, since they believe coming to an agreement with the seller is unlikely. Or

2) They’re uncomfortable with the possibility of provoking a negative reaction from seller or listing agent.

Generally speaking, ours is not a society comfortable with aggressive negotiating, even though it can reap large rewards. Remember that a negotiation is a conversation between buyer and seller that doesn’t really begin until an offer is made. And until it’s made and the negotiation concludes, no one knows what price and terms might result — so don’t make ironclad assumptions based upon either asking price or initial offer price.

Lessons for Buyers
If you see a home you like, ask yourself: at what price would you be a buyer? Review recent comparable sales and market trends with your agent, and then make an offer — at or under whatever price you’re willing to pay. The first rule of negotiation is, “You never know until you ask.” A few buyers are negotiating discounts of 10% to 25% off list price, because they’re unafraid to make low offers.

Don’t waste time asking the seller or listing agent if they would entertain a low offer — they almost always say no (out of pride and/or a misunderstanding of how negotiations proceed). No one knows how anyone will actually react to an offer until the offer is made.

Ultimately, the home you buy will be a good or great value based upon the price you pay, not the price the seller asks. So focus on the first, instead of the second.

That said, those properties perceived as excellent values are still generating offers — and sometimes, multiple offers — quickly, and a home purchased 20% below asking price is not necessarily a better value than another purchased at full price: it all depends on the property and how it was priced to begin with.

Lessons for Sellers
Never discourage buyers from making offers. Counter-offer unacceptable offers instead of rejecting them outright.

Those 25% of sold homes which accept offers within 2 to 3 weeks of going on market achieve the highest percentage of sales price to list price. To do so in today’s market, your property must stand out as an excellent value: priced, prepared and marketed perfectly.

A listing will never get as much attention as in its first few weeks on market and pricing properly to begin with almost always results in more money than starting out high and reducing later. Most buyers will NOT make offers on homes they consider over-priced — and the longer a home stays on the market, the less value it holds in buyers’ calculations.

If you do need to make a price reduction — and in a changing market, the right listing price can change — do it as soon as possible and make it dramatic enough to recapture attention.

The only definition of fair market value that counts is: “That price a qualified and reasonably knowledgeable buyer will pay to a willing seller after the property has been properly exposed to the market.” To make it more complicated, that price is changing all the time.

Paragon in a Changing Market*

For SF home sales (house, condo, TIC) from October 15th, 2008 — when the 9/15/08 financial meltdown began to show up in sales data — through March 16, 2009, Paragon had the highest average sales-per-agent of any brokerage in the top 10 with at least 20 agents: higher than Sotheby’s, McGuire, Hill & Company, Pacific Union, Coldwell Banker, Zephyr, Vanguard and Alain Pinel. Paragon also had the lowest days-on-market figure of any of those companies. And year-over-year for this period, our market share increased by 38%.

As the market becomes more challenging, we’re working harder for our clients and obtaining superior results.
*Per Broker Metrics, for SF home sales reported to MLS as of 3/16/09

The purchase or sale of one’s home is typically one of the largest, most complicated financial transactions of one’s life. The quality of agent working on your behalf — his or her competence, integrity, work ethic and commitment to your interests — can make an enormous difference in the outcome.  In this market where so many companies are shrinking, Paragon continues to grow because of our strategy of hiring only the best agents with the ability to generate business through referrals that are earned based on long-term competetent service to our community.  I am committed to being your real estate advisor for life and sincerely appreciate the continuous support you all provide to my business.

All data from sources deemed reliable but subject to error or omission, and not warranted. 3/25/09

San Francisco State of The Market

Advanced Listing Services was kind enough to provide me with this “State of the Market” report for San Francisco County. It analyzes new listings, the rate at which they are marked “pending,” and the number of properties that return to “active” after being “pending.”

The most intersting piece of information in the report to me, is that the listing price for pending properties is significantly lower than that of for sale or active properties. This suggests that only inventory at the lower end of the price range is really moving despite the fact that foreclosures continue to be a relatively low proportion of our inventory in San Francisco.

To see the report, click here.

2008 SF Largest Sales by Neighborhood

BR = # of Bedrooms
H = House, C = Condo

Pacific Hghts 8BR H $18,000,000

Sea Cliff 6BR H $14,500,000*

Russian Hill 4BR H $ 9,500,000*

SOMA 4BR C $ 8,975,000*

Russian Hill 4BR C $ 6,700,000

Nob Hill 3BR H $ 6,400,000

Noe Valley 5BR H $ 5,818,000

Clarendon Hts 4BR H $ 5,625,000

St Francis Wd 5BR H $ 5,400,000*

Marina 4BR H $ 4,700,000*

Nob Hill 2BR C $ 4,625,000

South Beach 3BR C $ 3,500,000

Lake District 5BR H $ 3,100,000

Financial Dist 2BR C $ 3,020,000

Ashbury Hts 3BR H $ 2,850,000

Glen Park 4BR H $ 2,800,000

Richmond 4BR H $ 2,420,000

Mission Bay 2BR C $ 2,350,000

North Beach 3BR H $ 2,250,000

Bernal Hts 4BR H $ 2,150,000

N. Panhandle 4BR H $ 2,125,000

Balboa Ter 5BR H $ 2,100,000

Alamo Square 4BR H $ 2,050,000

Sunset 4BR H $ 1,900,000

Hayes Valley 3BR H $ 1,875,000

W. Portal 5BR H $ 1,850,000

Parkside 5BR H $ 1,555,000

Mission 4BR H $ 1,509,000

Excelsior 4BR H $ 1,300,000

Miraloma 4BR H $ 1,275,000

Bayview 3BR H $ 710,000

Ingleside 4BR H $ 685,000

2008 sales reported to MLS by 12/10/08
* Final list price (confidential sale)

San Francisco Shifts to a “Buyer’s Market”

SF is one of the world’s most desirable places to live and still has the “strongest economy in the state”* but with September’s deterioration of financial markets, the real estate market underwent a seismic shift. Sales and median prices declined dramatically. Price reductions, time on market, and the months-supply of homes for sale soared. Where the market was strongest-generally the high end-activity dropped precipitately. Areas with the highest foreclosure rates-in the less affluent southeast quadrant of the city-saw large increases in sales. Some offers are being accepted well below asking price. It is too early to say exactly what this means for 2009: between macro-economic conditions and the holiday season, many neighborhoods had too few sales for meaningful statistics. And medians and averages are always generalities. Still, after years of being mostly a seller’s market-high demand, low supply, multiple offers over asking price-SF has made the transition to a buyer’s market-more choice, more negotiation, lower prices and low interest rates. This trend may well spark an upswing in sales in 09.

Comparing November 2008 with November 2007, SF house sales declined by 26%, condos by 55%, TICs by 74%, and 2-4 unit buildings by 65%.  This reflects a market in shock from national economic conditions.

Comparing November 2008 with November 2007, the average sales price as a percentage of list price for houses accepting offers within 30 days of going on market declined from 104.1% to 99.8%. Though still high by national standards, this is the first time in years that the average sales price has been below average list price for houses selling quickly in SF.

2008 San Francisco Home Market by Price Range
(As of 12/12/08)

Price Range	For Sale		2008 Sales		Inventory Supply (MSI)
$500k & under	333		559		4.7 months
$501k – 1m	888		2474		5.5 months
$1001k – 2m	319		895		12.1 months
$2001k – 5m	94		250		13.8 months
$5001k – 10m	11		26		N/A
Over $10m	7		3		N/A

 

Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) is a measure of how long it would take to sell the existing inventory of homes at current sales rates. Generally speaking, an MSI below 4 is considered a seller’s market and an MSI over 5 or 6 is considered a buyer’s market.

Comparing 11/08 to 11/07, the MSI for houses increased from 3.8 to 4.8 months; for condos from 3.2 to 7.8 months; and for TICs from 4.2 to 8.9 months. Year over year, the MSI for many SF neighborhoods doubled, tripled or quadrupled, and are deep in “buyer’s market” territory.

SF Median Home Prices: Sold & Pending Sale
		Sold Nov-07		Sold Nov-08		Pending 12-8-08
SF All Houses		$928,000		$780,000		$629,000
SF All Condos		$778,000		$702,000		$645,000
SF All TICs		$600,000		$551,000		$549,000

Median sales prices decline for 2 reasons: decreases in value and changes in buying patterns towards lower priced homes. The first reason applies, to some degree, to all 3 property types above, but the huge drop in median price for houses also reflects a large decrease in higher-end home sales and a large increase in sales of less expensive homes. For example, comparing 11/08 to 11/07, house sales in the affluent Realtor Districts 5 (Noe, Castro, Haight) and 7 (Pacific Hghts, Marina) decreased 65%, while house sales in District 10 (Bayview, Excelsior) -with the highest foreclosure rate in SF-increased 41%.

Median Price & Dollar per Square Foot by Neighborhood

The chart below compares median sales prices and average dollars per square foot for the 1^st half of 2007-typically considered the peak of the market-with sales occurring since September 15, 2008, and then with homes pending sale as reported to MLS by 12/12/08. For pending sales, the calculations are based upon list price, since final sales prices were unknown. We see a general decline in both median price and dollar per square foot. These neighborhoods were chosen because there were sufficient sales for statistical analysis.

Neighborhood		Property Type		Sold 1/1 – 6/30/07		Sold 9/15-12/12/08		Pending Sale*
Noe Valley		House		$1,385,000		$1,260,000		$1,229,000
Pacific/Presidio Hts		Condo		$1,115,000		$927,500		N/A
Richmond District		House		$1,000,000		$960,000		$840,500
Noe/Castro Valleys		Condo		$903,500		$855,000		$825,000
South Beach		Condo		$837,500		$660,000		N/A
Sunset/Parkside		House		$832,000		$770,000		$699,000
Ingleside/Oceanvw		House		$700,000		$535,000		$500,000
Bayview/Excelsior		House		$690,000		$538,000		$549,000
SOMA		Condo		$679,500		$700,000		$590,000
South Beach		Condo (to $2m)		$841/sq.ft.		$782/sq.ft.		N/A
Pacific/Presidio Hts		Condo		$830/sq.ft.		$731/sq.ft.		N/A
SOMA		Condo (to $2m)		$715/sq.ft.		$654/sq.ft.		$591/sq.ft.
Hayes Vly/NOPA		Condo		$664/sq.ft.		$554/sq.ft.		N/A
Bernal Hghts		House		$629/sq.ft.		$571/sq.ft.		$560/sq.ft.
Sunset/Parkside		House		$605/sq.ft.		$551/sq.ft.		$535/sq.ft.
Richmond District		House		$583/sq.ft.		$555/sq.ft.		$534/sq.ft.
Bayview/Excelsior		House		$526/sq.ft.		$439/sq.ft.		$420/sq.ft.
Ingleside/Oceanvw		House		$487/sq.ft.		$456/sq.ft.		$451/sq.ft.

All data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error, omission or revision and not warranted. Medians and averages are generalities which can fluctuate dramatically and do not necessarily reflect values or changes in value for specific properties.

Foreclosure Sales Rates in the Bay Area

San Francisco continues to have the lowest foreclosure sales rate of any county in the Bay Area-less than half the rate of the second lowest county. According to DataQuick, in November 08, foreclosure sales in SF constituted 10% of property resale activity. The rates for the other 8 counties were as follows: San Mateo at 21.8%; Marin at 22.6%; Santa Clara at 38.9%;  Napa at 40.8%; Alameda at 44.4%; Sonoma at 51.6%; Contra Costa at 63% and Solano County at 63.6%.

60% of all SF foreclosure sales are occurring in just 3 of its 24 zip codes — 94134, 94124 & 94112 — all in the city’s SE quadrant (Bayview-Excelsior-Ingleside). Conversely, 94114, Noe & Eureka Valleys, had less than 1% of the city’s foreclosure sales.

Market Update – and I appear in print!

Since I’ve skipped a few weeks, I wanted to present a contrast in market activity in San Francisco between the two week period ended July 9 and the two week period ended July 23. Closed sales for the two week period ended July 9:

                               Over      Under   At

SFD                        31           36           13

Condo                   37           38           31

2-4 Units              6              7              1

Closed sales for the two week period ended July 23:

Over      Under   At

SFD                        50           26           13

Condo                   30           39           17

2-4 U                     5             7             1

Suffice to say that the news would have us believe that the trend is for things to look like the two week period ended July 9,  but then look at all those homes that sold OVER ask.  It can be a bewildering market for in which to buy and sell.  I wrote an article for this month’s Castro Courier where I discuss the best ways to get what you want in the current market.  You can read the article here.

How Long do Things Last?

Hello My Favorite People:

This issue includes:

1.  A short market update

2.  An article on how long you can expect different components of your home to last

3.  Paragon’s upcoming and pocket listings.

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Market Report:  

The last two weeks on the market here are sales figures:

• Single Family Homes:  26 over ask, 30 under ask and 14 @
• Condos/TICs:  25 over ask, 36 under ask and  15@.  Note:  the under asks were concentrated in larger buildings…most of the overs were in 2 to 3 unit buildings.
• 2-4 Units:  6 over ask, 6 under ask and 1 @

What does this mean?   Well, two years ago, the first like would have been more like 65 over ask, 15 under ask and 10@, so it is showing a lower volume and that buyers have more negotiating power, but it still indicates a strong market for sellers, particuarly if the property is very well prepared and agressively marketed.  It also shows a market that has slowed a bit in terms of volume, but from such a crazy peak that it is still quite active.  If you’d like info about how to prepare and market your home to be one of the “over asks,” just give me a call or shoot me an email.

And a word about our lovely mortgage market.  Any of you who are out there looking at loans these days know that a) rates are very volitile right now, and b) it’s very hard to get any loan over $417k with a reasonable rate.  I think the change in conforming loan limits that will be put into practice starting April 1 will affect this dramatically .  This change will create a secondary market for many loans that would previously have been either securitized or held in a bank’s own portfolio and will therefore free up some cash for banks to loan out in less liquid products.  Is this all greek to you?  I would be happy to explain if you really want to hear all my theories – just call or email. But if what you want is to know when this is all going to end, the answer is we don’t know exactly, but there should be some relief on the way in the next 4 weeks or so.  I don’t expect it to be immediate after April 1, because it will take some period of time for the new liquidity to filter down to the consumer level.

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How Long Does Stuff Last? (article courtesy of Cece Blase)

One of our managers recently passed out a report by the National Association of Home Builders and BofA entitled Study of the Life Expectancy of Home Components. That sounded like a big yawn to me at first, but once I dug into it, I found some surprises and interesting tidbits.  

So here’s how long some of our stuff is supposed to last–

Appliances:  When my sister and I were teenagers, we used to open and shut the refrigerator door over and over, hoping that there would somehow be something different inside. Eventually our mother would go a little buggy and yell, “Each time you do that is one less time it’s going to open!” Â We probably shortened our refrigerator’s life expectancy of 13 years. . .

Dryers also give out after about 13 years. And the shortest lifespans belong to the compactors (6 years), dishwashers (9 years) and microwave ovens (9 years). Â Gas stoves have the longest lifespan—about 15 years. No mention was made of toaster ovens– probably because those suckers last f-o-r-e-v-e-r.

Cabinetry and Storage:  Kitchen cabinets are expected to last 50 years– that’s long enough for them to look cool, then ugly, then cool again.  Medicine cabinets can hang in there for 20 years, which is unfortunate because they get a cruddy look about them after a few years of hard use.

Countertops: Natural stone can last a lifetime. Cultured marble countertops (think bathroom, not kitchen) can go about 20 years. I looked up Cesarstone– my new favorite counter material. The warranty only lasts 10 years.  I also dug around for info on how long green alternatives last, but all I learned is that PaperStone and glass composite countertops have ‘lifespans comparable to standard countertop material.’

Decks: It depends on region, but under ideal conditions decks last about 20 years.  I dread a  deck inspection when I sell a house because it’s alwys a hotspot for its exposure to wet leads to inevitable dry rot. Again, think green and check out Trex Decks.

Doors: Your exterior wood door will last as long as your house. Vinyl doors are only good for 20 years, which I think is kind of weird because vinyl is supposed to be more weather and water resistant. Maybe the framing warps or cracks?

Sinks and Faucets: Kitchen sinks made of modified acrylic (like Swanstone) will last 50 years. Kitchen faucets can go about 15 years. Showerheads last a lifetime and whirlpool tubs can go 20-50 years, depending on use.

Heat: Furnaces last 15-20 years. Standard water heaters give out after about 10 years. Â Tankless water heaters go more than 20. I love tankless water heaters, but am told that it can be difficult to retrofit our older homes for them.  

Roofing: If you want your roof to last more than 50 years, go for slate, copper or clay/concrete. Asphalt shingles last about 20 years. Fiber cement shingles can go 25 and wood shake can hang in there for about 30 years.

I have a copy of the complete report in pdf. Email me if you want one.

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Upcoming Listings.  This is advance notice of things Paragon either has coming on the market or are off market “pocket listings.”  If you see anything that piques your interest or that of a friend, I’d be happy to get you in early for a private showing:

$759,000  /  241 Carl        BR/BA: 2/1.5     / PKG:    0     /  33.33% TIC sunny Edwardian flat  I WILL BE HOLDING THIS OPEN SUNDAY 3/16, 2 to 4 p.m.  Please stop by if you’re around!

$1,675,000/ Noe Valley /  3BR 3.5 bath/ house-like condo, on 2 levels, over 3,100 SF. Open Sunday 2-4.

$1,049,000 / Potrero Hill/ 3BR/3.5BA/1PKG  Sweeping Bay views from atop Potrero Hill! High ceilings w/curved timber detailing. Hdwd/carpet, and hi-end finishes throughout. Granite in kitchen/baths. Decks off main living and bedrms. Roof deck off the Master suite. Shared elevator with the adjacent unit.

$995,000/ Nob Hill/  2BR/ 1 bath, garage pkg.  To-the-studs renovated TIC in a free-standing Victorian 3 unit.  Private yard, over 1,250 SF.  Seller will finance till conversion, which will be in about a year.  

$859,000   / Twin Peaks/ BR/BA:  2/2    PKG:  1    Description:  Top Floor gorgeous VIEW unit on a quiet Upper Market cul-de-sac.  Very sophisticated redmodeled kitchen & baths. In-unit Laundry. Deck.     

$639,000, South Beach/ 1+ BR/ 1 bath.  Extremely large 1BR Portside condo, over 920 SF, with study, HW flrs and private deck.  

469,000 / Lower Pacific Heights/  Charming, bright, top floor studio condo with sleeping alcove in 12-unit bldg, overlooking garden with panoramic downtown views.

Price Reduction:

New Price: 1,795,000/ Old prices: 1,835,000 / Eureka Valley / 4654-56 18^th St.  BR/BA: 4/4.5     PKG: 1/1 Grand home w/apt.

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Finally, a repeat:  Save the Date

Do you ever get in discussions about what to call homes you see?  Is it a Queen Anne, an Italianate, a Stick or an Eastlake variant?  Is it an Edwardian or is it a Craftsman?  Is it a Spanish Revival, Eclectic or Colonial?  Sometimes, as we all love our homes and the City, these debates can even get rather heated…

Well, I recently met someone who knows all the differences and, not only that, is good at explaining them in memorable ways.  This brilliant person is San Francisco Architect James Dixon.

Your next question is probably, where can I see James and learn all about it.  The answer is at the Poleng Lounge on Wednesday, April 2 @ 6:30 p.m.  James and I are co-sponsoring an event entitled “San Francisco Residential Architectural Styles.”  There will be a slideshow and Q&A.  Be sure to bring a picture of your house for expert analysis . . . and your friends who need to meet a great Realtor!

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Thanks again to friends and associates who continue to send their referrals.  I rely on you to keep the engine of my business going—and am grateful for your support.

See you soon!