As you might have noticed, due to the fanfare around The Big Rumble, last Saturday was the 20th Anniversary of the Loma Prieta Earthquake. Not to get to preachy about the whole thing, but are you prepared?

If anyone reading this does not know how to shut off their gas, please let me know and I will come show you or at least explain it on the phone.  But in addition to that, you might want to think about getting an earthquake preparedness kit together.  These can be assembled or purchased.  Here’s a great source for one stop shopping:  Disaster Survival Solutions.  They make a kit in a weather proof box you can keep outside your home (which is really important if your house falls down…).  If you want to assemble your own, just take a look at what’s in the kit do it yourself.

After you have your tent, sleeping bags and 3,600 calorie food bars, and WATER, you might want to consider making sure you know what to do and how to best help if the big one hits.  The San Francisco fire department offers fantastic free Neighborhood Earthquake Readiness Traning or “NERT.”  Elvis wants me to take the traning to get the free hard hat.  But fashion options aside, it’s probably a good idea, which I hope you will consider.  To find out more click here.

A couple of things happening in the next few weeks I wanted to mention.

First, Paragon is having a client appreciation event – and I wish Icould take each and every one of you – at the Millennium Tower.  This is the shining 60 story tower at 301 Mission with the new Michael Minna restaurant RN74 on the ground floor.  Way up in clouds on the 50th floor, there is a newly unveiled decorator showcase and we are having a party there on November 12!  Please let me know right away if you’d like to join me there!

Second, as many of you know, I am a big fan of San Francisco’s public schools and my son, Elvis, goes to Claire Lilienthal.  We are having our 2nd annual Texas Holdem Tournement – and yours truly is one of the sponsors!  So if you like kids and you like Poker (no, there won’t be any kids at the event), come and gamble the night away!  Tickets are $100 in advance and prizes include $3500 worth in value of American Express Gift Cards, Dinners at great restaurants such as Perbacco and Harris’ Steak House, health club memberships, and much, much more!  See evite for details by clicking here.

As I mention in my article on volume, more activity puts pressure on prices. As you can see in the table below, the number of transactions where the property is selling for more than the asking price, is sharply up from earlier this year, where even for single family homes, under 20% of transactions were yeilding a sales price over asking. We’re at a whopping 54% of single family home transactions closed in the last two weeks coming in over asking price.  To see more about earlier in the year, click see “Have we found the Floor?” from July 31, 2009

In every category, even luxury, the number of homes sold is trending upwards. The charts below are not reflective of the price they are trading at, but generally higher market activity starts to put upward pressure on prices. The charts below show a two year period ending August 30, 2009.  Overall, my reading of these charts is that if you were waiting for the market to bottom out, it has already done so.  Also, it’s still a very good time to buy between 500k and $2MM as those curves have only just started to gently edge up.

Home Sales $500,000 & Under (It must be noted here that one of the reasons the growth in sales is so high is because there were fewer homes as a proportion of the market under $500,000 back in 2007.)

Home Sales $501,000 – $999,000

 Home Sales $1,000,000 – $1,999,999

Home Sales $2,000,000 and Above

When I read “four bridge view,” I had to stop and count them… I suppose on a really clear day you must be able to see just a hint of the Dunbarton, which would make five.

In addition to unique, sweeping views, 116 Sugerloaf in Tiburon has a really cool floating fireplace, view bubble with hanging see-thru chairs, an amazing open, indoor/outdoor living design. It was designed by architects Scheidegger & Tobias with construction completed in 2004 by the current owners. A link to the previous listing can be seen here (the pictures are just so fab – kudos to the photographer!). Shown by appointment only – let me know if you or someone you know can’t resist.

Yesterday, the Case-Shiller Index — considered the most objective index of US home prices — reported, as pertaining to April to May prices: “10-city and 20-city composites reported positive returns for the first time since the summer of 2006…the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing.”

For the SF Metro Area (i.e. greater Bay Area, NOT just SF), C-S reported gains of .6% March to April, and 1.4% April to May. Year over year, C-S reported an overall metro area decline of 26.1%. Read the full article here.

From my own experience, I can happily say that things are picking up. Home of the Week 1617 Fulton went into escrow after just 5 days or so on the market with a pre-emptive offer. My listing at 640 Judah got three offers after just a short time on the market, and buyers who I am working with now are regularly competing in a field of 3 or more offers. To be clear, these deals are all well under the $1MM mark, and activity is definitely being driven by the availability of financing available at very low rates. Homes that are not eligible for these low rates – most TICs and homes requiring a loan over $729k are not moving nearly as briskly (if at all -oh so gorgeous Home of the Week 116 Sugarloaf has been on the market over a year and has been reduced from $7.5MM to a mere $4.5MM).

The below charts show that there has been a substantial increase in sales volume, and about a 20% decrease in homes selling under asking price.  Volume for the two weeks ended July 15 was 172% of what it was for the period ended March 18 of this year.  It is too soon to tell if the decrease in homes selling under asking price (and the commensurate increase in those selling over) means that prices are climbing.  However, my recent market experiences tell me that there has been a shift toward underpricing homes to attract attention (and multiple offers) in the “affordable” sectors of the market.

Well, it’s changes like these that keep things exciting and I am really happy to be participating in these busy times due to the support I get from all of you. Thanks, as always for your referrals and for letting me be your go-to person for your real estate needs.

(All data is from San Francisco MLS)

I’m sure we all have that gut check moment on our commitment to being San Franciscans every month when we pay our mortgages or when we visit friends out of state with really big, nice, cheap houses. Ditto that when you go out to eat or take a taxi. Why does it cost so much to live here, and why are we willing to put up with it? Well, if you believe University of Michigan economist David Albouy, it’s because it’s actually a “good deal.”

Here’s what a recent article in US News & World Report had to say about San Francisco:

“With the fourth-highest quality of life and the highest trade productivity on Albouy’s list, the San Francisco area — which includes Silicon Valley — comes in first on the list of most valuable cities. There are high wages, but even higher housing costs. Albouy found that housing costs are pushed so much above the wage level because San Francisco residents enjoy a premium beyond income, such as great weather, a thriving local arts community, and lively neighborhoods. But the business aspects of San Francisco outshine even the quality of life. Albouy says it’s often thought that small cities where workers earn lower wages, like Boise, Idaho, are where businesses should start because costs like hiring and renting a building are so low there, relative to cities like San Francisco. But low prices also mean low quality. “Boise is a terrible place to do business, and the low wages are a sign of that,” he says. Compared to Boise, “San Francisco has a highly productive workforce,” he says.”

Does this ring true to you? It does to me. I am just not Boise material.  To read the whole article, click here.

Some fun facts to mull over:

I was talking to my friend James Dixon, who you may remember likes to teach us about architectural styles and learned that this building (where Stefan, Elvis and I live in the upper flat) is a Queen Anne Edwardian. I had thought that the terms Queen Anne and Edwardian were mutually exclusive, but it turns out that whether something is an Edwardian or a Victorian is based on the date of construction. Since 1615-1617 Fulton was built in 1901, that makes it an Edwardian.

The reason I am featuring my own building as the Home of the Week is that the lower flat 1617 is for sale. The price is $799,000 for a spacious 3 bedroom/2 bath unit with parking and it will be open today from 1 to 4. Stop by and take a look!

Inner Sunset Edwardian Condo

 640 Judah is a 2 bedroom 1 bath condo located in the vibrant Inner Sunset neighborhood in San Francisco.  I hope you will take a moment to stop by to see me this weekend on Sunday from 2 to 4 if you are in the area.