We have a lot to be thankful for in San Francisco. We have largely survived this real estate downturn without the enormous declines we are seeing on the news. However, they have been significant. Anyone in the market today on the seller side certainly can tell you that.

I thought it was a good time to check in and update the article from earlier this year “How Much Have San Francisco Home Values Declined Since their Peak?” Thankfully, many neighborhoods have not had a change since April, when values were even lower than in February, and some have even climbed a percent or two.

Below is an analysis of San Francisco neighborhoods comparing Average Dollar per Square Foot ($/sqft) at what is estimated to be peak value, to the average for sales occurring 10/15/08 – 4/1/09 (the market period right after the 9/15/08 financial markets meltdown), and then to the average for more recent sales occurring 5/1/09 – 10/30/09 (as home sales volume – and financial markets – surged again).

Different areas reached peak values at different times – in 2006, 2007 or 2008 – and the asterisked notes denote the estimated peak value period that pertains. The price ranges of the sales included were chosen to be in a standard range of value for the area and property type specified – thus attempting to eliminate both the ultra high end and the ultra low end, which often distort averages.

Dollar per square foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, or exterior spaces. These figures are usually derived from appraisals, tax records or condo maps, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. There are often surprisingly wide variations of value within neighborhoods, and averages may be distorted by one or two sales substantially higher or lower than the norm. They may also be distorted by confidential sales, which are not uncommon at the upper end of the market. (For confidential sales, the list price, and not the sales price, is used for the calculation.)

Key to Estimated Peak-Value Period for the Chart Below:
*             Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/06 – 6/30/06
**           Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/07 – 6/30/07
***        Peak values estimated to have been reached 1/1/08 – 6/30/08

Changes in Average Dollar per Square Foot Values
for Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods & Property Types

Averages are generalities and cannot account for the varieties in location, condition and amenities found in SF homes. Averages may be affected by unusual events or short-term trends, and do not necessarily reflect values for specific properties.  Average dollar per square foot values fluctuate even in a stable price market as they are impacted by individual sales, and changes of less than 3-4% should probably be ignored. All data from sources deemed reliable, but not guaranteed and may contain errors and omissions. Sales not reported to MLS – such as many new condo-development sales – are not included in this analysis.

A couple of things happening in the next few weeks I wanted to mention.

First, Paragon is having a client appreciation event – and I wish Icould take each and every one of you – at the Millennium Tower.  This is the shining 60 story tower at 301 Mission with the new Michael Minna restaurant RN74 on the ground floor.  Way up in clouds on the 50th floor, there is a newly unveiled decorator showcase and we are having a party there on November 12!  Please let me know right away if you’d like to join me there!

Second, as many of you know, I am a big fan of San Francisco’s public schools and my son, Elvis, goes to Claire Lilienthal.  We are having our 2nd annual Texas Holdem Tournement – and yours truly is one of the sponsors!  So if you like kids and you like Poker (no, there won’t be any kids at the event), come and gamble the night away!  Tickets are $100 in advance and prizes include $3500 worth in value of American Express Gift Cards, Dinners at great restaurants such as Perbacco and Harris’ Steak House, health club memberships, and much, much more!  See evite for details by clicking here.

When I read “four bridge view,” I had to stop and count them… I suppose on a really clear day you must be able to see just a hint of the Dunbarton, which would make five.

In addition to unique, sweeping views, 116 Sugerloaf in Tiburon has a really cool floating fireplace, view bubble with hanging see-thru chairs, an amazing open, indoor/outdoor living design. It was designed by architects Scheidegger & Tobias with construction completed in 2004 by the current owners. A link to the previous listing can be seen here (the pictures are just so fab – kudos to the photographer!). Shown by appointment only – let me know if you or someone you know can’t resist.

Those of you who have known me a while will remember my obsession with a particular pink farm house on the eastern slope of Twin Peaks back in 2001. I spent several months scheming how I was going to get my hands on it and eventually wrote an offer to buy it for $875,000 without most of the adjacent and very valuable land. The owner eventually rejected my offer, and moved in herself, but I had the pleasure of imagining it could be mine for about 3 weeks and dreamed every night about what it would be like to wake up with the sun streaming in and views of Mt. Diablo and the bay from our bedroom.

I take it as a sign of personal growth that I can now present this fabulous property as my Home of the Week without too many pangs. It will be open this Sunday from 2 to 4 and I highly recommend you make viewing this wonderful estate property a part of your afternoon.  For the MLS listing, click here.

I am a huge fan of free public activies in general – just seeing all my fellow San Franciscans out enjoying our community gives me a thrill.  And nothing is more fun than free movies in the park – a picnic dinner under the stars and snuggling those you love under a blanket while you watch a favorite movie. . . it’s like a modern urban campfire. 

At least two organizations offer movies in San Francisco every summer:  The San Francisco Neighborhood Theater Foundation (http://www.sfneighborhoodtheater.org/) and Dolores Park Move Night (http://www.DoloresParkMovie.org).  Both are non-profits and could use your support.  Last year there was a third organization, Alamo Square Movie Night that seems to be no longer functioning.  Stefan and I attended several and think it’s perhaps because it was a tad too chilly for anyone but die-hards like us. )

You can generally count on my family planning to attend, so if you ever want to join us, just let me know.  Here’s what I know about the schedules:

SF Neighborhood Theatuer Foundation Movies:

Saturday, 6/20, Dolores Park, GOLDFINGER (1964)
Saturday, 7/11, Union Square, MANHATTAN (1979)
Saturday, 8/1, Dolores Park, PRETTY IN PINK (1986)
Saturday, 8/22, Union Square, ON THE WATERFRONT (1954)
Saturday, 9/19, Dolores Park, THE DARK KNIGHT (2008)
Saturday, 10/3, Wash. Sq. Park, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE (2008)

Dolores Park Movie Night:

Thursday, July 9, at 8:30 P.M. – Annie Hall (1977)
Thursday, August 13, at 8:30 P.M. – TBD.  They are open to suggestions.  See the Web site.
Thursday, September 10, at 8:00 P.M. – TBD.  They are open to suggestions.  See the Web site.
Thursday, October 8, 7:00 P.M. – TBD.  They are open to suggestions.  See the Web site.

If we’re connected on Facebook, you’ve already seen this picture of Elvis at our new community garden plot.  Just two weeks later, we have arugula, radishes, basil, pumpkins, peas and various other things sprouting.  We also, unfortunately, had a gopher siting.  It’s been really fun so far!  Although we have a yard, the placement of the fences does not make it ideal for cultivation of vegetables and we’ve also enjoyed getting to know some of our fellow gardeners.  The cost?  $25 a year.  The land is owned by SF Park & Rec and the $25 goes into a community fund for things like garden hoses and other improvements. 

These gardens are tucked away in out of the way unused spaces and offer an opportunity to experiment, grow your own food and make new friends.   If you’d like to participate in a community garden, here’s a complete list of what’s out there in San Francisco.  Waiting lists range from none to a few months or even several years.  It’s worth checking out, as there’s no better way to eat local than to grow your own.  To see the complete garden list, click here.  If you belong to a garden, post on the blog and let me know what you think of yours!

HOMEBUYER TAX CREDIT CHART

In recent weeks, the number of listings accepting offers has increased substantially, while the number of price reductions and expired and withdrawn listings – though still high by historical standards – has decreased significantly. Months-supply-of-inventory (MSI), an indicator of seller supply and buyer demand, has also declined. (The higher the MSI, the greater the buyer advantage.) Whether this will prove to be the beginning of a durable resurgence for SF real estate or simply a springtime bounce, it is too soon to tell.

The area where most house sales are now occurring is Realtor District 10 (Bayview-Portola-Excelsior). Then comes District 2 (Sunset-Parkside), District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight) and Bernal Heights. District 10, with the greatest number of foreclosure sales, has been hardest hit by price declines, and has roughly as many sales as Districts 2 and 5 combined – so it has had a massive impact on overall median price in SF. (Which is one reason why the overall city median home price is virtually worthless as an indicator of changes in market values.)

Most condo sales are occurring in South Beach-SOMA, then District 5 (Noe-Castro-Haight), and then District 7 (Pacific Heights-Cow Hollow-Marina). These numbers don’t include new development sales unreported to MLS – which would greatly increase the South Beach-SOMA sales numbers. The new developments are doing everything they can to move inventory right now.

Foreclosure Sales Update

Since mid-October 2008, 17% of house sales and 6% of condo sales in San Francisco have been REO (bank-owned) homes. The median sales price of an REO house during this period has been relatively stable at about $500,000; the median sales price for an REO condo has been $432,000. 78% of REO house sales have occurred in the less affluent south/southeast part of the city, stretching from Bayview to Oceanview. 85% of REO condo sales have been in the neighborhoods stretching south from SOMA along the east side of the city down to Bayview and across to Oceanview. The greater part of the city – northern, central and western neighborhoods – continues to be relatively unaffected by foreclosure sales.

Below, median sales prices are calculated for 2-bedroom condos, 3-bedroom houses and 2-bedroom TICs in a number of SF neighborhoods over a variety of periods beginning with 1995 — when the last, great Sellers’ market began — and ending with the six months following the financial market meltdown in September 2008. (Its effect began to show up in mid-October sales.) Median price is a relatively crude statistical generality – especially in SF with its huge variety in property type, size, condition, curb appeal and architectural style – but it can be useful in assessing macro trends in the market. However, remember: for a specific home, only a specific market analysis is truly pertinent.

Since October 15th, year over year, the number of sales has dropped 20% for houses, 35% for condos, 53% for TICs and 46% for 2-4 unit buildings. But that masks significant changes in buying trends: the number of houses sold below $1,000,000 actually increased 4%, while sales of more expensive houses plunged over 50%. People are generally buying smaller, less expensive homes, and then, only those that stand out as excellent values. Less appealing homes – which still sold in earlier years (virtually everything sold during the boom years) – are not getting reflected in the current figures.

Some of the more affluent neighborhoods had too few sales to be statistically meaningful. For example, in the last 6 months, all of Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow and the Marina had only 19 house sales, of all sizes and prices. St. Francis Wood had only 6 and Sea Cliff only 4. Roughly 50 – 70% of buyers of upper-end homes – who would typically be considered “willing and able” – can no longer get better financing rates without very large down payments. When that changes, we’ll be better able to assess values in that market segment. In the meantime, it is dominated by buyers with lots of cash.

Depending on your email system, you may have to give permission to download the following charts.

Further analyses of percentage changes in median and average prices, and dollars per square foot can be found here:
Percentage Declines Analysis

As is clear from the above, the long term value of buying versus renting is easy to show. But what about the short term? Well, due to price declines, tax benefits and exceedingly low interest rates, the Rent versus Buy equation – which went badly out of whack during the runaway Sellers’ market – has been coming much more into balance. Here is a sample calculation comparing paying $2600 rent with purchasing a $650,000 home. Since any calculation depends on one’s assumptions regarding inflation, appreciation, interest rates, down payment, term of ownership, and so forth, please feel free to use the calculator referenced to perform your own calculation.
Sample Rent vs. Buy Calculation